مدیریت دولتی

مدیریت دولتی

کیت احیای خط‌‌مشی‌‌های عمومی در ایران؛ طراحی سازوکار‌های اجتناب/کاهش پیامدهای ناخواسته

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دکتری، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
2 استاد، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
10.22059/jipa.2026.407796.3841
چکیده
هدف: پیامدهای ناخواسته خط‌مشی‌های عمومی یکی از چالش‌های بنیادین حکمرانی در عصر حاضر به‌شمار می‌رود. پیچیدگی، عدم‌قطعیت و پویایی‌های محیط اجتماعی، همراه با محدودیت‌های شناختی انسان، موجب شده است که بسیاری از خط‌مشی‌ها، نه تنها مسائل را حل نکنند، بلکه خود به منبعی برای بحران‌های جدید بدل شوند. پژوهش حاضر با هدف طراحی «کیت احیای خط‌مشی‌های عمومی» در ایران، به بررسی و تبیین سازوکارهای اجتناب و کاهش پیامدهای ناخواسته پرداخته است. این کیت به‌مثابۀ چارچوبی مداخله‌ای و ابزارمحور، تلاش دارد خلأ موجود در ادبیات خط‌مشی‌گذاری را پُر کند و راه‌کارهایی عملی برای مدیریت ریسک‌های خط‌مشی ارائه دهد.
روش: روش تحقیق مبتنی بر رویکرد کیفی و تحلیل محتوا بوده است. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه با خط‌مشی‌گذاران ارشد ایران، با نمونه‌گیری هدفمند و قضاوتی گردآوری شد. برای اعتباربخشی به یافته‌ها، از راهبردهایی چون بازبینی مشارکت‌کنندگان، بررسی همکار و مثلث‌سازی داده‌ها استفاده شد. در نتیجه، ۴۷۶ کد اولیه استخراج و پس از پالایش، در قالب ۱۷ سازوکار، ۶ مقولۀ فرعی و ۲ مقولۀ اصلی دسته‌بندی شد. این سازوکارها در شش دستۀ کلی جای گرفتند: تطبیقی، ظرفیت‌سازی، انعطاف‌پذیری، جذبی، مشارکتی و رفتاری. چهار دستۀ نخست ماهیتی عینی ـ فرایندی دارند، در حالی که دو دستۀ آخر بیشتر به ابعاد ذهنی ـ رفتاری خط‌مشی‌گذاران مربوط می‌شوند.
یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که پیامدهای ناخواسته، نه فقط نشئت‌گرفته از ضعف طراحی، بلکه محصول تعاملات پیچیده میان اهداف چندگانه، ارزش‌های ایدئولوژیک، منافع سازمانی و محدودیت‌های شناختی هستند. در این میان، سازوکارهای تطبیقی و ظرفیت‌سازی می‌توانند با افزایش توان نهادی و یادگیری سازمانی، تاب‌آوری خط‌مشی‌ها را ارتقا دهند. سازوکارهای انعطاف‌پذیری و جذبی نیز امکان اصلاح و بازگرداندن خط‌مشی‌ها به مسیر مطلوب را فراهم می‌کنند. در کنار آن، سازوکارهای مشارکتی و رفتاری با تقویت اعتماد اجتماعی و تغییر نگرش کنشگران، به کاهش مقاومت و مدیریت پیامدهای پیش‌بینی‌نشده کمک می‌کنند.
نتیجه‌گیری: پژوهش حاضر بر ضرورت مفهوم‌پردازی و نظریه‌پردازی نظام‌مند در حوزۀ پیامدهای ناخواسته تأکید دارد. مرور ادبیات نشان می‌دهد که بخش عمدۀ مطالعات پیشین، به بررسی موردی بسنده کرده‌اند و به طراحی ابزارهای جامع کمتر پرداخته‌اند. در مقابل، کیت احیای خط‌مشی‌های عمومی با ترکیب ابزارهای تشخیصی، پیشگیرانه، اصلاحی و یادگیری، رویکردی یکپارچه ارائه می‌دهد. این کیت نه تنها به شناسایی الگوهای بروز پیامدهای ناخواسته کمک می‌کند، بلکه امکان پیشگیری از شکل‌گیری آن‌ها، اصلاح پس از وقوع و یادگیری نهادی برای جلوگیری از تکرار خطا را فراهم می‌سازد. نتیجه‌گیری اصلی پژوهش آن است که حکمرانی خوب، فقط با نیت خیر و اهداف عالی تحقق نمی‌یابد، بلکه به توجه جدی به پیامدهای پنهان و پیچیدۀ اجرای خط‌مشی‌ها نیازمند است. کیت احیای خط‌مشی‌های عمومی، می‌تواند به‌مثابۀ ابزاری راهبردی، خط‌مشی‌گذاران را در انتخاب ترکیب مناسب سازوکارها یاری دهد و با افزایش تاب‌آوری و انعطاف‌پذیری، زمینۀ حکمرانی اثربخش‌تر را فراهم آورد. بدین ترتیب، این مطالعه گامی در جهت پُرکردن خلأ نظری و عملی موجود در نظام خط‌مشی‌گذاری ایران برداشته و چشم‌اندازی نو برای مدیریت پیامدهای ناخواسته ترسیم کرده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Public Policy Resuscitation Kit in Iran; Designing Mechanisms to Avoid/Reduce Unintended Consequences

نویسندگان English

Jafar Zinatbakhsh 1
Hassan DanaeeFard 2
Seyed Hossein Kazemi 3
1 Ph.D., Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management & Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Prof., Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Prof., Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Objective
Unintended consequences of public policies represent one of the most fundamental and persistent challenges of governance in the contemporary era. Complexity, uncertainty, and the dynamic nature of social environments, combined with human cognitive limitations, often result in policies that not only fail to resolve the problems they are intended to address but themselves become sources of new crises. This study aims to design a Public Policy Resuscitation Kit for Iran, with a specific focus on mechanisms for avoiding, mitigating, and correcting unintended consequences. The kit, conceived as an intervention-oriented and tool-based framework, seeks to fill a critical gap in the policy literature by offering practical strategies for risk management and policy resilience.
Methods
The research employed a qualitative approach utilizing content analysis as its primary analytical method. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with senior policymakers in Iran, who were selected via purposive and judgmental sampling techniques. To ensure the validity and trustworthiness of the findings, participant review, peer examination, and data triangulation were systematically applied throughout the research process. Ultimately, 476 initial codes were extracted from the interview data. These codes were subsequently refined into 17 distinct mechanisms, which were grouped under 6 subcategories and 2 overarching categories. The identified mechanisms were classified into six clusters: adaptive, capacity-building, flexibility, absorptive, participatory, and behavioral. While the first four clusters are predominantly process-oriented and tangible in nature, the latter two pertain specifically to the cognitive and behavioral dimensions of policymakers, thereby capturing both structural and human aspects of policy implementation.
Results
The findings indicate that unintended consequences are not merely the result of poor policy design or technical miscalculation but rather emerge from complex interactions among multiple and sometimes conflicting goals, ideological values, organizational interests, and cognitive constraints inherent in decision-making processes. Adaptive and capacity-building mechanisms were found to enhance institutional resilience and foster organizational learning, enabling organizations to better anticipate and respond to unforeseen outcomes. Flexibility and absorptive mechanisms enable the correction and redirection of policies toward desired outcomes, allowing for mid-course adjustments in response to emerging challenges. Meanwhile, participatory and behavioral mechanisms strengthen social trust, reshape the perspectives of key actors, and reduce resistance to policy changes, thereby facilitating the effective management of unforeseen effects and enhancing overall policy acceptance.
Conclusion
The study also underscores the necessity of systematic conceptualization and theorization in the field of unintended consequences. A review of prior literature reveals that most existing studies have focused on case-specific analyses, with limited attention devoted to the development of comprehensive and replicable tools. In contrast, the Public Policy Resuscitation Kit integrates diagnostic, preventive, corrective, and learning instruments into a unified and coherent framework. It not only facilitates the identification of patterns of unintended consequences but also provides practical means for prevention, post-occurrence correction, and institutional learning to avoid the repetition of errors. By combining these complementary functions, the kit offers policymakers a structured pathway to anticipate risks, intervene effectively, and sustain long-term improvements in governance. The central conclusion is that good governance cannot be achieved solely through benevolent intentions or lofty goals; rather, it requires serious and sustained consideration of the hidden and complex consequences of policy implementation. The Public Policy Resuscitation Kit serves as a strategic instrument, enabling policymakers to select appropriate combinations of mechanisms and thereby enhance the resilience, flexibility, and adaptability of policies. In doing so, it contributes to more effective governance and offers a novel perspective for managing unintended consequences. This study thus takes a meaningful step toward bridging theoretical and practical gaps in Iran's policy-making system and outlines a new horizon for the systematic treatment of unintended consequences in public policy.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Unintended consequences
Content analysis
Public policies
Resuscitation kit
Causal mechanisms
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